Expectations vs. Reality
The Oscar season is almost over and tomorrow (March 4) we’ll know the names of the best actors and films of 2017, according to the Academy. The 90th Academy Awards ceremony will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles at 5 p.m PST.
Jimmy Kimmel is hosting the show for the second year in a row, so what I know for sure is that we’re all going to have fun.
Every year I like to make my fearless Oscar predictions, even if it’s quite impossible for me to think as an Academy jury member. But I like to play the game.
Here are my final picks and preferences in the major categories.
BEST MOTION PICTURE
The nominees:
Call Me By Your Name by Luca Guadagnino
Darkest Hour by Joe Wright
Dunkirk by Christopher Nolan
Get Out by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird by Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread by Paul Thomas Anderson
The Post by Steven Spielberg
The Shape of Water by Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri by Martin McDonagh
I root for…
Call Me By Your Name by Luca Guadagnino
Because…
It’s a simple and powerful love story, featuring an extraordinary cast: Luca Guadagnino’s film doesn’t need any visual effects.
But the Oscar will go to…
The Shape of Water by Guillermo del Toro
Because…
Del Toro transformed a potentially absurd relationship (between a woman and an amphibious creature) into a credible and elegant love story.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees:
Timothée Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I root for…
Gary Oldman
Because…
He played some of the most iconic characters in cinema history and his performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour is undoubtedly the best of his career. He never won an Oscar: how is that possible? He doesn’t deserve an Oscar: an Oscar deserves Gary Oldman.
But the Oscar will go to…
Daniel Day-Lewis
Because…
His performance in Phantom Thread is superb and last summer he announced his retirement from acting: the Academy has been brokenhearted ever since.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep forThe Post
I root for…
Frances McDormand
Because…
She plays an angry and suffering mother in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri : one of the best performances we’ve ever seen on the big screen.
But the Oscar will go to…
Sally Hawkins
Because…
In The Shape of Water she plays a mute woman and The Academy likes this kind of “actor’s tests”.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees:
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer for All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I root for…
Sam Rockwell
Because…
He plays a racist and reckless policeman in Three Billboards Outiside Ebbing, Missouri: you will hate him from the first scene, but he’ll make you change your mind in the second part of the film.
But the Oscar will go to…
Christopher Plummer
Because…
Kevin Spacey was meant to star in All The Money In The World, but he was cut off after being involved in the recent sexual scandals. Christopher Plummer replaced Spacey when the project was in the finalization phase, showing the world he’s a real professional.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees:
Mary J Blige for Mudbound
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
I root for…
Allison Janney
Because…
In the biographical film I,Tonya, she’s the mother of (former) figure skater Tonya Harding. Janney’s monologues in front of the camera are worth the film: she’s evil, sarcastic and irresistible.
But the Oscar will go to…
Allison Janney
Because…
Her character is well written and played, the best in her category.
DIRECTING
The nominees:
Dunkirk by Christopher Nolan
Get Out by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird by Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread by Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water by Guillermo Del Toro
I root for…
Christopher Nolan
Because…
Nolan’s cinema is spectacular from package to content: even his works of pure entertainment have something to say. This is his 5th nomination at the Oscar and he never won one. Seriously?
But the Oscar will go to…
Christopher Nolan
Because…
This is also his first nomination for Directing: his work with composer Hans Zimmer, for Dunkirk, reached the excellence. The film is the greatest visual symphony we’ve ever seen.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
The nominees
Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk
Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread
Alexandre Desplat for The Shape Of Water
John Williams for Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I root for…
Hans Zimmer
Because…
As I said before, Nolan and Zimmer’s work in this film is unbelievable: they worked as a unique creative mind, but they deserve two separate awards.
But the Oscar will go to…
Hans Zimmer
Because…
The composer is challenging some great competitors such as Alexandre Desplat and John Williams, but his work is for sure the best of the year.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
The nominees
James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber for The Disaster Artist
Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green for Logan
Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees for Mudbound
I root for…
James Ivory
Because…
His screenplay had a key role in the success of Call Me By Your Name and it’s easy to understand why: it’s a triumph of culture and passionate lines.
But the Oscar will go to…
James Ivory
Because…
This time there’s no competition: he did an excellent job, he’s 89 and he deserves an Oscar.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
The nominees:
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani for The Big Sick
Jordan Peele for Get Out
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I root for…
Martin McDonagh
Because…
The actors who star in his film had an extraordinary material to work on: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri a great story and McDonagh provided the urgency and the intensity it needed.
But the Oscar will go to…
Greta Gerwig
Because…
Lady Bird is her first feature film and she did a great job: probably the Academy will repay her effort.
